Economic programmes compared line by line with rough price tags and a realism score; social positions mapped alongside. Built from the CVK programme texts (17 Sep 2026) and public fiscal data.
A political compass built from the programme texts. Across: economic stance, from more state and redistribution to lower taxes and less state. Up and down: social values, from open and liberal to traditional and national. Colour adds the third Latvian dimension, the line on Russia, Ukraine and defence; switch the vertical axis to put that dimension on the chart instead.
Each list's estimated net annual cost of its quantifiable economic pledges (midpoint, % of GDP) against the realism score. Dot size = SKDS support among decided voters. Hover for detail; click to open its price tag.
Share of decided voters, derived from LSM's all-respondent figures (22.5% undecided, 11.2% not voting excluded). Latvijas Fakti (21–31 Aug) has AS 23.6, LPV 12.6, NA 11.0, PRO 10.7, ZZS 10.4, so NA and ZZS may be undercounted here.
Seventeen statements drawn from where the programmes actually differ. Answer the ones you care about, skip the rest, and star the ones that matter most (they count double). Results update as you go and nothing leaves your browser.
Your economic position comes from the tax, budget, benefits and state-role statements; your social position from the Istanbul Convention, marriage, language, immigration and civil-society statements.
Seats estimated with Sainte-Laguë over 100 seats for lists at or above 5%, done nationally (the real count is by five districts, so expect ±1–2 seats). Edit any share to test a scenario, then pick a coalition to see if it reaches 51 and where its programmes collide.
Five of today's lists held government posts in the 14th Saeima. Their headline 2022 pledges checked against outcomes by September 2026. Only items verified from a source are included; each links to its evidence.
Share of checked pledges delivered in full, in part, or not at all.
General-government deficit and debt, % of GDP. 2026 is the Finance Ministry's July forecast.
Twelve policy areas × 14 lists, paraphrased from the programme texts. Tags: TAX↓ tax cut · TAX↑ tax rise · € new spending · ⟳ structural change. Blank = not addressed. Click any cell to read the original Latvian programme text behind it. stated in the text · our reading or inferred from what is missing.
Static, full-year cost in 2026 money of each list's quantifiable pledges, summed as low–high ranges. Revenue raisers are netted off; claimed savings (audits, cutting defence) are shown but not netted, because none is costed. Defence at 5% of GDP is the baseline, not counted.
Midpoint cost split into tax cuts, new spending and new revenue. The right column adds each programme's midpoint cost to the 2027 baseline deficit of 4.2% of GDP, a worst case if everything were enacted in full and nothing else changed. The EU reference value is 3%.
Direction and size of the direct effect of each list's economic package on 14 groups, from −2 (clearly worse off) to +2 (clearly better off). Judged from the pledges' mechanics, not from rhetoric. "Future taxpayers" scores the debt left by unfunded pledges.
Hover a cell for the reason behind the score.
Annual change in cash from the pledges that can be computed for one earner: PIT, family benefit, property tax and VAT pass-through. It ignores how each pledge would be paid for.
Default household: average 2026 wage (€1,915), two children, own flat. Uses 2026 rules: 25.5% PIT, €550 non-taxable minimum, €250 per dependant, family benefit €25 / €50 / €75 / €100 per child.
The same household at every gross wage from €780 to €6,000 a month. A curve that climbs with income means the pledges favour higher earners; one that peaks and flattens is aimed at low and middle earners. As a share of net pay the curves show progressivity more clearly.
Rising curves come from flat-sum exemptions: a PIT exemption for mothers (LPV) or large families (GS) is worth more the more you earn, while NTM rises and child benefits are capped in euros.
Ten issues coded from the programme texts; the compass on the Overview is built from these. Click any cell for the original Latvian text; stated, inferred. Colour shows the direction on the open ↔ traditional-national axis (GAL–TAN, as in the Chapel Hill Expert Survey); amber marks positions that loosen ties with the EU/NATO line or Russia policy.
Each list placed on a five-point scale per issue (−2 to +2). Tight clusters mean near-consensus; lists spread across all five columns mark the real fault lines. Only lists that address the issue are shown.
Spread (standard deviation) of positions among the lists currently above 5%. Short bar = they broadly agree; long bar = the issue divides a likely Saeima.
Direct effect of each list's social programme on ten groups, −2 to +2. Hover a cell for the reason.
From 1,428 CVK candidate declarations. "Sitting MPs" = employment mentions the Saeima. Averages are skewed by a few wealthy candidates; many declare zero.
All 1,428 CVK declarations. Search a name, job or employer; filter by list and district; click a row for the full declaration.
Borrowed from established manifesto-analysis practice: the CPB "Charted Choices" and IFS approach of costing each pledge on a common, static basis; the Manifesto Project habit of coding what the text actually commits to; and the Chapel Hill two-axis split into economic (state↔market) and social (GAL↔TAN) dimensions.
Full-year, static (no behaviour or growth effects), 2026 prices, versus current law. Only pledges with a number or a clear mechanism are costed; targets like "min wage €1,250 by 2030" are scored for realism, not costed. Ranges reflect uncertainty in tax bases. Treat all figures as order of magnitude.
Average of four sub-scores: Fiscal (unfunded net cost vs. a deficit already above 3%), Legal (EU VAT directive, sanctions, single market, Satversme), Specificity (is it concrete and costed?), Delivery (administrative capacity, coalition plausibility).
Compass: economic score judged from the whole programme (−5…+5); social score = mean of five issues coded −2…+2; colour = mean of Russia/Ukraine and defence. Seat projection: national Sainte-Laguë on poll shares, lists ≥5% only. Household curves: one earner, 2026 rules, static. Party programmes: CVK dati.cvk.lv/SV2026 (data as of 17.09.2026). Price tags and scores are analytical estimates prepared for this dashboard, not official costings. Data are held as structured objects in the page, ready to move into a website or database.